Operation Management Came In New Era That Was Implemented By Management And New Version Came Is Human Resource Management. However, Forecasting Is Needed To Control Any Organization And Improve More Organization Internally And Externally. This Is An Operation That Needs To Do Identify To Solve All Issue Of Any Company Or Multinational Company Like Mcdonald’s


Isolationism had occurred in the past Multinational companies do sales offices over the world use transnational status to operate beyond the control of national governments Even small firms that do not operate on a global scale must make strategic decisions based on international considerations


Knowledge management
Set of practices aimed at discovering and harnessing an organization’s intellectual resources ¢Unlock people’s expertise, skill, wisdom, and relation.

Intellectual capital do collective brainpower to any organization

¢Collaboration across “boundaries” capitalize on the ideas of people outside the traditional company “boundaries”
¢must effectively capitalize on customers’ brains
¢get customers to think creatively to identify new product and service ideas MANAGING

¢Cost competitiveness Costs should be kept enough so that the company can realize profit & Price. Your products at a level that is attractive to customers key is efficiency – accomplishing goals by using resources wisely and minimizing waste
¢Quality Excellence product produce includes attractiveness, reliability, and long-term durability.

The importance of quality has increased dramatically Must identify specific elements of quality to correct problems, target needs, and deliver world-class value MANAGING FOR COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE

Speed Requirement has increased exponentially Innovation The introduction of new goods and services Important to adapt to changes in consumer demands and to new sources of competition Best managers and companies delivering all four

MANUFACTURING Characteristic
Output Customer contact Uniformity of input Labor content Uniformity of output VS.SERVICE Manufacturing
Tangible Low High
Low High Service
Intangible High Low
High Low Measurement of productivity Easy Opportunity to correct quality problems High Difficult Low High

Operations Management includes: · Forecasting · Capacity planning · Scheduling Managing inventories Assuring quality Motivating employees Supply Chain Management (SCM) Forecasting FORECAST A statement about the future value of a variable of interest. The forecast is the basis of budget, capacity, Sales, Production, Inventory, Personnel, Purchase and many more things Forecast play important role in the planning process that makes manager plan for the future accordingly Forecasts enables good control of the organization.

But if not then it will hamper organization and management activities Accounting Finance Human resource Marketing MIS Operations Product/service design. FORECAST Accounting Cost/profit estimates Finance cash flow Human Resources Hiring/recruiting/training Marketing Pricing, promotion, strategy MIS IT/IS systems, services Operations Schedules, MRP, workloads Product/service design New products and services COMMON FEATURES TO ALL FORECASTS Assumes causal system pat to future Forecasts sometimes rarely perform if have any lackings

Individuals Forecast accuracy decreases horizontal increase

To get an A+ this semester Element of Good Forecasting
Forecasting would be timely
The forecast would be accurate and the degree of accuracy should be stated.
The forecast would be reliable It would work continuously
The would-be meaningful
It would be writing
This should be easy to understand and use.
This should be cost-effective.

Steps of the Forecasting Process
Step-1 Have to determine the purpose of forecasting
Step-2 Also has to establish a time horizon
Step-3 Need to select the best technique
Step-4 Need to gather also analyze step
Step-5 Will have to ensure and monitor forecasting Time – Series Forecasts Forecasts that project ensures recent time Series observations Associative Model Forecasting should use explanatory variables for near demand.

The time-ordered sequence of observations taken at regular intervals; e.g. – hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, etc. Analysis of time series data requires the analyst to identify the underlying behavior of the series. Different patterns are – Trend Seasonality Cycles Irregular variations and Random variations.

¢Trend – A long term that could be up to down of any data
¢Seasonality – Short products should be released to maintain business

Naive Method The naive approach can be used with a stable series (variations around an average), with seasonal variations, or with a trend.
Techniques for Averaging Moving
Average Weighted Moving
Average Exponential Smoothing

MOVING AVERAGE Technique that averages a number of recent actual values, updated as new values become available.

EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING Weighted averaging method based on previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error. Ft = Ft-1 + a(At-1 – Ft-1) FORECAST ACCURACY Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) Average absolute error MAD = å Actual- forecast n Mean Squared Error (MSE) Average of squared error MSE = å (Actual – forecast) Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) Average absolute percent error å(( Actual-forecast MAPE))

Analysis: Forecasting is essential to control any business. Many organizations put forecasting into human resource management. That control the whole organization by giving accurate result and measurement.

I can give an example of Mcdonald’s which always focus on forecasting method of inner company operation that includes stocking, Maintaining the Lobby, Control food production based on the demand of the customer, and using timing based on what time customers eat, and then the chef produces food advance based on timing. In that case, customers do not need to wait long. But if a manager put fewer employees such as needed in one shift 24 people but putting 16 people. In that case, pressure will arise if they can not control the shift. In this situation need to find out more hard worker employees who can do 4 employees’ work. But Mcdonalds’s HRM practices externally talk about hard work.

Moreover, They focus on those who can shout or take leadership of the inner environment which could be by mouth or showing the manager that he/she is so lightening.

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